In my undergraduate degree research, the ‘p-value’ was a number that came from statistical analysis. It was a long time ago now, but from my basic understanding and memory, the p-value gave an indication of how probable it was that the results were related to chance, rather than to the relationship between the conditions being tested. Assuming the pattern met the hypothesis, the lower this figure was, the more confidence you could put in the patterns from the data. While I don’t remember wondering this at the time, I now often think: How much easier would life be with statistical back-up for each decision we make?
Certainty: a prized illusion
As humans, our ability to think ahead, plan and actualise far beyond the present are abilities that may distinguish us from some other animals. We tend to value these abilities and the results highly.
Over the span of our existence, our abilities have enabled us to engineer and organise increasingly complex social systems, and the tools as well as technology to support them and our survival and growth on a huge scale.
We are collectively, literally and figuratively able to construct the frameworks for life as we currently know it. Considering our achievements as a species, we could be forgiven for buying into the illusion this could help to create, of a high level of human control over the world and every outcome.
Perhaps the circumstantial, psychological and emotional costs of being exceptionally talented creators and forecasters, are paid through our poor grasp of the reality of inconsistent success and the limits of certainty. Perhaps this illusion is so convincing, that it sometimes obscures the inevitability of failing or being disappointed due to the things we can’t control in the world. The impact on us when what we expected and planned for does not come to fruition, can be significant.
Uncertainty: A catch-all for various experiences
I’ve noticed in therapy, sometimes the idea of uncertainty is used as a catch-all, but in reality the term describes several experiences. It can refer to a mental state consistent with emotions or experiences such as worry, anxiety, fear, overwhelm and vigilance. It can mean facing a stressful or unclear situation yet to unfold, or decision yet to be made. Additionally, uncertainty can describe the byproducts of ways of coping with stress and difficult to tolerate emotions, that unintentionally create doubt.
Uncertainty as a mental state
On a personal level, we can be ill-prepared to tolerate uncertainty due to what we have learned from infancy.
We could have experienced highly critical, protective or directive parenting that deskilled us of spontaneity, or staying with the emotional discomfort of waiting, or getting things wrong. We may have never been truly helped in childhood to understand our brains and emotional landscapes, so thoughts and feelings could seem frightening for us and others.
In emotionally abusive relationships (childhood and adulthood), over time the perpetrator can subtly in-still a sense of uncertainty, doubt and mistrust in one’s own perception, choices and abilities through gaslighting or DARVO tactics.
When appearing certain is so highly socially and institutionally valued, we may experience pressure to choose and / or seem quickly ‘sure’ before we actually are.
‘Not knowing’ or seeming to in these instances, can invite judgement from others and towards ourselves. Feeling or fearing judgement or the possibly of making the wrong choice can then itself provoke worry, overthinking or ruminating, and overwhelm that is hard to calm.
Whether mental state, situation or both, there is perhaps an unspoken idea that the ability to tolerate uncertainty is only an inner skill or ability in a vacuum, that mostly depends on the will and effort of the individual struggling. This can unhelpfully imply a kind of failure for experiencing it.
Hardwiring can make us uncertainty-prone. A reactive nervous system and felt uncertainty can go hand-in-hand for many people. Such tendencies can be biologically inbuilt so may need to be understood and worked with. Fast decisions and calm reactions to ambiguity may be a bigger ask still, for those of us whose habit or wiring is for all-or-nothing thinking or bottom-up processing. The results can be a naturally slower time to decide or act.
With high emotion or pressure, there could be the risk of switching between feeling reassured and catastrophising, denial and acceptance. All are ways of coping, that are really ‘fantasies’ in the face of a clear trajectory yet to be ‘confirmed’. In uncertain situations with many possibilities and implications to consider, how can someone with these patterns be expected to quickly and neatly process to feel ‘sure’ about a complex decision?
If our brains tend to follow such patterns, I’ve noticed common therapy strategies that rely on challenging thoughts, using ‘worry time’ or a decision-making tool can sometimes do little to help us if used before understanding how context and nervous system interact.
I’m sometimes left questioning whether the success behind some of these tools lies with encouraging versions of strategies like dismissing, distracting from or ignoring the underlying feelings and driving issues. While these might be sometimes pragmatic or helpful temporarily, longterm the impact may not be.
Uncertainty driven by ways we learn to cope
We are often taught unrealistically to expect certainties in life. For example that a good education and behaviour will lead to a good career, or that looking after our health will lead to wellness and a long life.
Such messaging, and trying to constrict ourselves to them and their promised outcomes, can feed into common ways of coping that over time, disrupt our inner gauge and true sense of ourselves.
There can be a relationship between the dishonesty we practise with ourselves about our true feelings and experiences, and the gulf between this and a genuine sense of certainty. Especially when we rely on denial, projection, suppressing our feelings and needs, or convincing ourselves and others of our contentment when we are actually distressed.
In my career, and life I’ve met people who have become so disconnected from their distress signals, that they can seem genuinely consciously unaware of their own discontentment and the possible reasons behind it. We’ve all met people like this, haven’t we, or gone through similar ourselves?
Sometimes the possible reasons for someone’s discontent or distress can seem more apparent to us than to them. Perhaps experiences like bullying or abuse, or pressure to be perfect. Less visible reasons could be those such as identity dysphoria or shame amongst many others.
Such coping strategies often attempt to protect the sense of self, and / or even particular relationships. Dismantling them can feel very threatening, so can sometimes cause distress almost equal to acknowledging them. However, once noticed, beginning to gradually do so, may help to begin to resolve some of the resulting dissonance and uncertainly. While we initially maintained these coping strategies for a sense of ‘ease’, they can unintentionally contribute to confusion about ourselves, others and situations.
Uncertain situations
Some health complications I’ve faced, and observing the progress of destructive climate and environmental crises that are escalating or yet to be prevented, has brought into sharp focus that there is remarkably little we can totally control.
Some personal situations or decisions we face are extremely confusing, unclear or complex, due to high stakes implications, a lack of or conflicting information or evidence, or multiple possible paths. This can provoke an almost ‘Schrödinger’s cat’, effect due to the numerous unknowns. How can it really be obvious to know what to do in such situations, when the doubt and confusion are baked into in the circumstances themselves?
The experience of such situations, until more is ‘known’ and clear, can feel like asking your brain to somehow sit in multiple, shifting or infinite possibilities at once. A big ask for our nervous systems, which thrive on predictability to stay regulated.
Unlike my undergraduate research, while we don’t have p-values in real life, arguably, one function of spirituality and religion can be to act as a psychological buffer for uncertain situations, according to sociological perspectives. In early Afroasiatic belief systems, lore, symbolism and figures of worship were largely environmentally-focussed and directly linked to subsisting – featuring or targeting things like the wheather, fertility, or the rise and fall of the sun and moon.
Whether you are religious or not, the comfort in being able to leave your worries and fears with an infinitely more powerful being or force to decide, or act on your behalf, is evidently a valid desire. Especially when you might have little influence over the outcome you are trying to affect.
We may instead turn to other guidance or counsel – maybe family or friends, therapy, mentoring or coaching, with the hope they can provide and portray certainty.
I rather believe that anyone in the role of helping is more effective doing so as an active, challenging sounding board, facilitating a process of re-clarification and a transition towards feeling more confident in your choices, needs and values. This process, like any learning is subject to huge amounts of uncertainty. It can result in a range outcomes that are sometimes a surprise and unintended as well as expected or hoped for.
Coping with uncertainty in all forms without all the answers
I think it is immensely helpful and pragmatic to differentiate, when we can, between a tendency or less frequent inner sense of doubt or confusion, and circumstances with a genuine lack of clarity. Of course there are also instances where both mix up which could be acknowledged and noticed as well.
Becoming aware of any of our dismissive ways of coping, and how they can perpetuate uncertainty too, is one step towards shifting the discomfort and emotional incongruence associated with it.
In uncertain situations, accepting and voicing that you do not know and can’t yet decide may seem obvious or like unoriginal advice. But nonetheless I hope this is an important reminder for times when we feel pressured or judged.
Gaining more information and delaying deciding until then where possible, and taking some time to think are practical strategies for a difficult or complex decision or situation, that you can use to reduce pressure too.
Self-compassion can’t be underestimated here, to gently tell yourself that not knowing and feeling uncertain and scared is only understandable and not a personal flaw.
It can help to name and validate the situational and personal factors that are genuinely making decisions difficult for you personally. For example, if you are neurodivergent, and have a thinking or processing style that requires certain conditions (quiet, low pressure?) to thrive – honour that.
You can notice if there are multiple factors in the situation or decision that you have enmeshed. Perhaps instead, it could be better to consider addressing each one step-by-step.
If you have a natural tendency for self-doubt (due to anxiety, perfectionism or fearing criticism), perhaps it could be helpful generally to build some autonomy and confidence in your own sense of wants, needs, wishes and values.
Becoming more familiar with these can eventually build a securer sense of what is important to you. Understanding this may eventually help you make or face decisions more easily, whether they are complex or simpler. I think that this kind of exploration is a helpful alongside learning to use decision-making tool, as it could valuably inform it.
Finally, It may help to remind yourself that sometimes you are confused, simply because people or the situation is confusing!
While perhaps I haven’t given you clear or certain answers to uncertainty, I hope that I have begun to help you consider how to navigate the route through. Happy disentangling!
© 2026 Lorraine Welch. All rights reserved
Related further reading
Managing uncertainty — Kaye et al.
State of the Science: Intolerance of Uncertainty — Dugas et al.
acuriousroute 